Outlook 2017

OUTLOOK 2017

The major environmental policy issues under the Trump administration and GOP Congress

Inside EPA's Outlook 2017 is a comprehensive special report on legislation, litigation and agency rulemakings in the coming year on major air, water, waste, toxics and other policies. It focuses heavily on the major energy and environmental policy questions and challenges facing President-elect Donald Trump's administration, including the next EPA.

Or read individual articles below.

Clean Energy Shift May Help California Lead On Climate Despite Trump

A broad shift toward cleaner energy in many states could aid California's pledge to continue leading the U.S. on climate change and renewable power despite vows by the incoming Trump administration to halt a number of high-profile Obama greenhouse gas regulations, sources say. In addition, the new administration likely cannot prevent other states and Canadian provinces from joining the existing California-Quebec GHG cap-and-trade program, which would only further bolster renewable energy and GHG cuts from the power sector, they say...

Trump's Paris Approach To Test Obama Officials' Lobbying To Stay In Deal

When President-elect Donald Trump takes office later this month, he could soon reveal whether a weeks-long lobbying push by the Obama administration and environmentalists has succeeded in persuading him to remain a part of the landmark Paris climate deal – or whether he will keep his campaign promise to “cancel” the pact. The issue is a central unanswered question for climate change policy observers, who acknowledge Trump's antipathy toward climate regulation but also note that leaving the deal or its...

Trump Rollback Moves On Vehicle GHG Rules Hinge On California Leverage

Under pressure from the industry groups to roll back EPA's vehicle greenhouse gas rules, the Trump administration and its congressional allies may find it difficult or impractical to reverse the light- and heavy-duty vehicle GHG rules because of California's leverage to go beyond federal limits and reluctance by many in truck sector to disrupt regulatory certainty, sources say. Despite those barriers, automakers are ramping up calls to revisit EPA's proposed determination to retain light-duty vehicle GHG standards for model years...

Pending Litigation Could Be Wild Card For Trump Climate Policy Rollbacks

Litigation moving through federal courts may play a large role in determining whether the incoming Trump administration can quickly roll back Obama-era climate change rules. Most prominently, an appeals court is poised to rule on EPA's Clean Power Plan (CPP) which could, as expected, largely uphold the rule and postpone the new administration's ability to immediately drop it. Another pending suit is a claim by 21 youth plaintiffs that the U.S. government is failing to protect their constitutional and public...

EPA Critics Face Tough Fight On GHG Authority Despite GOP Control

EPA's critics in the new Congress face significant obstacles stripping EPA's authority to regulate greenhouse gases -- despite conservative demands to do so, Republican pledges to attack GHG rules in cooperation with the Trump White House and the real threat of significant cuts in EPA programs. One major challenge, observers say, is the unlikelihood that Senate leaders will scrap filibusters for legislation – giving Democratic lawmakers, off-the-Hill allies and possibly some Republicans leverage to resist full-scale legislative attacks on the...

Environmentalists Expect Mix Of Defense, Offense On Oil & Gas Air Rules

Environmentalists expect to play a mix of defense and offense under the Trump administration on regulation of the oil and gas sector's emissions, planning to fight to defend existing EPA rules to reduce the industry's air pollution and greenhouse gases (GHGs) while stepping up a push for stricter emissions rules for drilling operations. Litigation is pending in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit over EPA's new source performance standards (NSPS) setting first-time limits on the...

Environmentalists Fear Trump, Congress May Stall ESA Pesticide Progress

Environmentalists fear the incoming Trump administration and new Congress may slow progress on EPA and federal wildlife officials' effort to craft a process for assessing pesticides' risks under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), though industry officials say major changes are unlikely unless a federal court backs advocates' push to expand the reviews. EPA and federal wildlife officials have been working for several years to refine a process for assessing risks of pesticides to listed species, and face a legal deadline...

Facing Likely Rollback Of RMP, Facility Safety Groups Defend EPA Rule

Environmental justice advocates are pushing back against expectations that the incoming Trump administration will seek to roll back EPA's recently-announced final rule overhauling the agency's facility safety program with new hazard analysis and auditing requirements, but acknowledge that the rule's industry opponents have various tools to undercut it. EPA Dec. 21 announced its final rule updating its Risk Management Programs (RMP) facility safety regulation, part of a broad federal effort to implement President Obama's August 2013 Executive Order (EO) 13650...

Potential Trump Hiring Freeze May Limit EPA's Ability To Keep Top Scientists

A federal hiring freeze, as suggested by President-elect Donald Trump, could affect EPA's ability to retain top-flight scientists through a program known as “Title 42,” which EPA and other science-based agencies use to attract and retain highly skilled scientists who would otherwise be lured away by more lucrative offers from universities or industry. One source at a scientific organization worries that a hiring freeze as Trump has suggested could leave EPA unable to hire new scientists or even retain existing...

TSCA Implementation Likely To Be Smooth Despite New Administration

EPA's implementation of the revised Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) is expected to mostly be smooth throughout the coming year despite the change from a Democratic to Republican administration, sources say, given the updated law's sweeping bipartisan support and several statutory deadlines for certain agency actions. However, some chemical industry officials note that President-elect Donald Trump could be sympathetic to their calls for how to implement various provisions of the law, such as how to address new requirements for handling...

Future Of EPA Vapor Intrusion Policy Uncertain With Trump Administration

Industry and environmentalist observers are differing on whether the incoming Trump administration will abandon a recently finalized rule that gives EPA the authority to consider vapor or water intrusion when scoring a contaminated site for possible inclusion on Superfund's National Priorities List (NPL) of the country's most hazardous waste sites. An attorney representing industry groups at Superfund sites doubts there will be a push by industry to get the Trump EPA to rescind the new Hazard Ranking System (HRS) rule,...

Prospects Appear Slim For Stricter EPA Mining Waste Rules Under Trump

Republican lawmakers and the incoming Trump administration could consider a variety of options to thwart or weaken EPA mining waste rules in development under the Obama administration, as the rules face significant opposition from lawmakers on key committees as well as from industry. The two EPA mining rules whose prospects appear to be dim are EPA’s financial assurance requirements under section 108 of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation & Liability Act (CERCLA) and a pending groundwater protection rule for uranium...

Utility Sector Seeks Quick EPA Action On Ash Permit Regime Despite Suits

The power sector is looking to EPA and states to quickly develop permit regimes for disposal of waste ash from the plants in 2017 to implement a law overhauling enforcement of the agency’s first time Resource Conservation & Recovery Act (RCRA) ash disposal rule, despite ongoing litigation over the rule's technical mandates. The coal ash provisions in the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act (WIIN) that President Obama signed Dec. 16 require states to seek EPA approval for ash...

Potential Effort To Weaken NAAQS In Next Administration Faces Hurdles

A potential attempt by the incoming Trump administration to weaken some of EPA's six national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) faces legal and other hurdles including how to justify a reversal of years of agency findings that the Clean Air Act and consensus scientific data have required several stricter NAAQS. The air law requires that the agency review its ambient air limits every five years and the Trump EPA will have the chance to complete such reviews for five of...

Supporters Of EPA Air Rules Could Take Lead On Defense In Lieu Of DOJ

States, environmentalists and other supporters of several EPA Clean Air Act rules currently facing legal challenges might have to take the lead on defending the regulations in federal appeals court if President-elect Donald Trump orders his EPA and Department of Justice (DOJ) to drop their defense of the rules, sources say. Much of the focus since the presidential election has been on the likelihood that Trump will force EPA to drop its defense of the contested Clean Power Plan greenhouse...

'Green Bond' Advocates See Continued Opportunities For Growth In 2017

The financial sector's interest in instruments to fund water infrastructure projects based on their potential for climate change mitigation remains robust despite pledges from the incoming Trump administration to dismantle many Obama-era policies addressing climate change, sources say. If anything, advocates for so-called green bonds say, the uncertainty of the upcoming Trump policies could create opportunity and increased interest from investors in the bonds, which are increasingly popular financial methods used to fund projects with a variety of environmental purposes...

High Court May Use CWA Rule To Clarify Jurisdiction But Suit's Fate Unclear

The Supreme Court could take a case later this year on the merits of EPA's rule aimed at clarifying the scope of the Clean Water Act (CWA) and use the suit as a vehicle to clarify its 2006 ruling that led to confusion over the law's reach, but observers say that several questions linger about whether the case will ever make it to the high court. “There are a lot of variables about where it would go,” one environmentalist says,...

Drinking Water Funding, Regulations In 'Unchartered Territory' During 2017

Drinking water industry stakeholders say the incoming Trump administration and changes in committee leadership in the 115th Congress creates great uncertainty over funding and policy developments for the sector, with a president-elect who claims to be eager to both pump funding into infrastructure projects and roll back environmental regulations. “We’re in totally unchartered waters,” one industry source says. “This is a very different kind of president. We’re going to have a whole bunch of new committee chairs, so we don’t...

Conservatives Eye Legislative, Judicial Options To Reduce EPA Deference

Conservatives are looking to a pending Supreme Court case, proposed legislation, and open federal court seats as vehicles for achieving their goal of reducing or eliminating a long-standing doctrine of judges deferring to EPA and other agencies on interpreting ambiguous statutes and rules, a change some high court justices support. “There is potentially an enormous change coming down the pipe in the next few weeks, including on agency deference” with the Republican-led 115th Congress that began on Jan. 3 and...

States Eye Trump To Tilt 'Cooperative Federalism' Balance In Their Favor

Many states are looking to President-elect Donald Trump's administration to curb the authority of EPA and other agencies and shift decision-making on air quality policies to the states, hoping to tilt “cooperative federalism” -- the Clean Air Act's balance of EPA and states' powers -- in their favor after years of claiming EPA neglected the principle. Under the Obama administration, a number of states in the South, Midwest and Mountain West have complained of stringent federal regulation and environmental policies...

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